Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine – Stalemate in Early 2026

The question of who is winning the war in Ukraine has no simple answer as of early 2026. Moscow holds a gradual advantage measured in territorial gains, having seized over 4,000 square kilometers across eastern and southeastern Ukraine during recent campaigns, yet Kyiv has demonstrated resilience through tactical counteractions and incremental recaptures. The conflict has settled into a grinding attritional phase where neither side has achieved decisive breakthroughs, despite intensified offensives and sustained international support for Ukrainian defenses.

Russian forces continue to exploit gaps in Ukrainian air defense systems while pressing advantages around key logistical hubs in Donetsk. Meanwhile, Ukrainian innovations in drone warfare have degraded Russian military infrastructure and temporarily reclaimed limited territory, including approximately 880 square kilometers across multiple fronts by early spring 2026. The battlefield remains dynamic yet deadlocked, creating a strategic stalemate that defies quick resolution amid stalled peace negotiations.

Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine?

Key Developments Shaping the Conflict

• Russian forces capitalized on fall and winter 2024-2025 campaigns to secure positions across Donetsk, outpacing Ukrainian recovery efforts.
• Ukrainian counteractions reclaimed 480 square kilometers and 12 settlements by April 2026, nearly matching previous Russian gains per ISW data.
• The Kursk incursion remains stalled against approximately 50,000 Russian troops since August 2024, failing to divert significant combat power.
• Neither side has generated operational breakthrough despite Russia launching 600 attacks over four days during spring 2026 offensives.
• Drone warfare has emerged as Ukraine’s primary asymmetric response, with 253 strikes in March 2026 degrading Russian air defense assets.
• Territorial exchanges continue at a grinding pace favoring Moscow’s incremental approach in eastern sectors.
• Peace negotiations remain deadlocked over Kremlin demands for full Donbas control and recognition of territorial concessions.

Fact Snapshot: Territorial Control

Current Front Lines and Territory Control

Eastern Ukraine and the Donbas

Russian forces have maintained pressure along the Pokrovsk axis through February 2026, capturing strategic positions including Prydorozhnie in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advancing near Kalenyky and Sopych along the Sumy border. These gains reflect a continued focus on degrading Ukrainian logistical networks in Donetsk. Contested areas persist near Rodynske, which has seen sustained fighting since October 2025, while Ukrainian forces have managed to reclaim nine settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since January 2026.

The Kursk Incursion

Ukraine’s cross-border operation into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, initiated in August 2024, succeeded in capturing 1,250 square kilometers initially but has since stalled against reinforced Russian defenses totaling approximately 50,000 troops. The operation has failed to achieve its strategic objective of diverting sufficient Russian forces from eastern Ukraine, resulting in a static front that consumes resources without significant territorial exchange.

Mapping Resources and Verification

According to Wikipedia’s territorial control logs, Russian forces have systematically pressured settlements like Kurakhove between October and December 2024, culminating in confirmed captures that align with President Putin’s unverified claims regarding Donbas control percentages.

Casualties and Military Losses

Civilian Impact

Documented civilian deaths from Russian strikes include 49 fatalities across multiple regions from Chernihiv to Zaporizhia within a single week. In March 2026, an attack on Sloviansk killed four civilians and wounded 16, while drone operations in the same period injured 17 more. A major Russian assault in April 2026 utilizing over 550 drones and missiles targeted hospitals, residential areas, and a UNESCO heritage site, killing multiple civilians and injuring more than 40. Ukrainian drone operations have also caused civilian casualties, with five deaths reported in Russian-held areas of Kherson and Zaporizhia according to ACLED monitoring.

Military Losses

Is the War in Ukraine a Stalemate?

Frontline dynamics reflect a definitive stalemate characterized by positional warfare and attritional tactics. Russia’s spring 2026 offensives, intended to establish a “buffer zone,” have resulted in over 600 attacks across four days without achieving operational breakthrough. Ukrainian forces counter these advances through tactical maneuvers and concentrated drone swarms.

The conflict exhibits classic stalemate indicators: Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion and subsequent counteroffensives in 2025-2026 have stalled, while Russian advances, though incremental, lack the depth to collapse Ukrainian defensive lines. Both sides trade territory measured in kilometers rather than oblasts.

Predictions and Future Outlook

Analytical Assessments

The Institute for the Study of War attributes Ukrainian gains in February 2026 partly to reported Russian Starlink communication losses, highlighting how technological disruptions shape tactical outcomes. ISW analysis continues to emphasize Russian terrain control in key tactical sectors despite Ukrainian resilience.

ACLED data indicates sustained Russian air escalation met by Ukrainian drone strategies designed to overwhelm defenses, with operations involving 250-300 drones monthly creating disproportionate pressure on Russian air defense stocks. The Council on Foreign Relations notes Russian confidence in its wartime economy, though this optimism contrasts with scholarly skepticism regarding long-term sustainability.

Diplomatic Trajectory

Kremlin demands for full Donbas control and territorial concessions remain non-negotiable preconditions for peace, stalling talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi as of January 2026. Current projections favor prolonged attrition, pitting Russia’s manpower and economic endurance against Ukrainian drone innovation and defensive resilience. No negotiated settlement appears imminent.

Timeline of Recent Operations

1. August 2024: Ukraine captures 1,250 sq km in Kursk Oblast; operation stalls against 50,000 Russian troops (CFR)
2. September 2024: Russia captures Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast (Wikipedia)
3. October 2024: Russia captures Selydove; sustained pressure on Kurakhove begins (Wikipedia)
4. December 2024: Russia captures Kurakhove after prolonged offensive (Wikipedia)
5. October 2025: Rodynske becomes heavily contested territory (CFR/ACLED)
6. February 2026: Russian advances around Pokrovsk; capture of Prydorozhnie in Zaporizhzhia (CFR)
7. March 2026: Ukraine recaptures 400 sq km in Dnipropetrovsk; 253 drone strikes degrade Russian air defenses (CFR/ACLED)
8. April 2026: Ukraine recaptures 480 sq km and 12 settlements; major Russian assault kills multiple civilians (CFR)

What Is Confirmed Versus What Remains Uncertain

Geopolitical and Military Context

The current battlefield reflects the crystallization of modern attritional warfare, where drone technology and air defense systems have neutralized the maneuver warfare that characterized early conflict phases. Russia’s reliance on mass artillery and incremental advances contrasts with Ukraine’s dependence on precision strikes and technological asymmetry to compensate for manpower limitations.

International aid flows exceeding $100 billion have sustained Ukrainian defensive capabilities, yet have not enabled the decisive counteroffensives necessary to expel Russian forces. Simultaneously, Moscow’s transition to a full wartime economy has buffered immediate fiscal collapse, though structural vulnerabilities may emerge as the conflict extends into its fourth year. For more information on the war in Ukraine, please visit Manchester Airport train disruption.

Sources and Analytical Methods

This analysis draws upon conflict monitoring from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, strategic assessments from the Institute for the Study of War, and documentation from the Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker. Territorial claims are cross-referenced with Wikipedia’s settlement control logs and independent mapping projects including DeepState and Crisis Group visual explainers.

“Russia holds a gradual advantage in the Ukraine-Russia war as of early 2026, with incremental territorial gains in Donetsk and other eastern areas despite Ukrainian counteractions and a stalled Kursk incursion into Russia.”

— Council on Foreign Relations, Global Conflict Tracker

“No side has achieved decisive breakthroughs; Russia exploits Ukrainian air defense weaknesses, while Ukraine uses drones to target Russian infrastructure.”

— ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor

Readers seeking to understand the What Is Primary Research – Definition, Methods, Examples and Vs Secondary methodologies underlying these conflict analyses can explore our detailed methodology guide.

Summary of the Current Balance

As of early 2026, Russia maintains a gradual territorial advantage through incremental gains in Donetsk and eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine has achieved limited tactical recaptures and effective drone-based defensive operations. The conflict remains a grinding stalemate with no decisive breakthroughs achieved by either side, characterized by high-casualty attritional warfare and stalled peace negotiations. For ongoing updates, see our Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine – 2026 Battlefield Update.

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